🌱 Breeder Opportunities
Analysis showing breeding opportunities based on market trends and pricing patterns.
💡 How to use this page (60 seconds)
What do the signals mean?
- 🔥 Hot (Strong Opportunity) – Sustained market scarcity, ideal for breeding investment
- ⚠️ Watch (Emerging Opportunity) – Increasing scarcity pattern, potential opportunity developing
- ❌ Avoid (Low Opportunity) – Consistently available in market, low breeding value
How to interpret the data:
- Hover over the ℹ️ info icon next to any signal to see specific drivers (stock patterns, demand trends, price movements)
- Use filters to focus on Hot or Watch signals for actionable opportunities
- Check Stock Pattern and OOS Runs to understand market consistency
Full Data Table
🧭 How the breeder analysis works
Thresholds, compact decision logic, and a rule trace that show why a row becomes Hot, Watch, or Avoid.
Breeder reading lens
Start with supply evidence. Stock pattern sets the base signal, price trend validates or strengthens borderline cases, and wishlist metrics refine urgency without replacing supply logic.
Stock Pattern Thresholds
- Newly Observed: present now, observed in 2 runs or fewer, and all observed runs are current trailing runs: This resolves to ⚠️ Watch. The breeder page exposes the row, but it avoids treating sparse history as proven scarcity.
- Sustained: OOS runs >= 4: This is the strongest supply-side setup. With price up or flat it becomes 🔥 Hot; if price falls, the row misses that Hot branch and drops out of the confirmed Hot path.
- Emerging: OOS runs >= 2 and < 4: This defaults to ⚠️ Watch and only becomes 🔥 Hot when price is up, or when wishlist pressure is Hot and delta is rising together.
- Cyclical: current status is IN/OUT: This resolves to ⚠️ Watch. Wave restocking stays visible without being treated as stable scarcity.
- Always: everything else: This is the oversupply bucket. It stays ❌ Avoid by default, and the best demand can do is lift it to ⚠️ Watch rather than 🔥 Hot.
Demand Modifiers
- Wishlist delta up: delta >= 5: A rise only counts when buyer movement clears the conservative weekly threshold.
- Wishlist delta down: delta <= -5: Small changes inside the band remain neutral to avoid noise.
- Small-N flattening: max-min <= 1: Flat non-zero distributions collapse to Watch instead of creating an artificial Hot tier.
Escalation Rules
- Assign 🔥 Hot: Sustained + price up or flat: The current breeder matrix treats sustained scarcity plus non-falling price as sufficient confirmation for the Hot branch.
- Sustained + wishlist Hot => recommendation emphasis only: Strong wishlist pressure can strengthen the recommendation wording, but it does not create a second escalation above Hot.
- Sustained + price down => misses Hot confirmation: The current breeder rules do not promote sustained scarcity when the price signal is falling, so the row drops out of the Hot path.
- Assign 🔥 Hot: Emerging + price up: Rising price is the cleanest confirmation path for a two-to-three-run shortage.
- Assign 🔥 Hot: Emerging + wishlist Hot + delta up: Demand can only upgrade an emerging pattern when both pressure and momentum are strong.
- Assign ⚠️ Watch: Newly Observed or Cyclical: Both of these paths stay visible but unconfirmed. Sparse history and wave restocking do not produce a Hot or Avoid signal on their own.
- Assign ⚠️ Watch: Always + wishlist Hot: Strong latent demand never overrides consistent availability into a Hot breeder signal.
- Assign ❌ Avoid: Always + wishlist Hot + delta down: Falling momentum keeps oversupplied rows from being dressed up as opportunities.
- Assign ❌ Avoid: Any remaining unmatched path: If none of the scarcity or watch-state checks fire, the breeder classifier falls back to oversupplied Avoid.
Time Windows & Caveats
- OOS carryover lookback: 5 runs: OUT rows can inherit their most recent in-stock wishlist pressure for a bounded period.
- Current delta lookup window: 3 runs: When a species is OUT now, momentum uses only a short carryover window.
- Previous comparable lookup window: 12 runs: Older baselines are ignored so momentum is not compared against stale history.
Compact Breeder Decision Tree
Classify stock pattern from current availability and OOS runs
Classify the row as Newly Observed, Sustained, Emerging, Cyclical, or Always. From there the breeder page assigns one of three outputs: 🔥 Hot, ⚠️ Watch, or ❌ Avoid.
OOS runs 4 or more
Assign 🔥 Hot if price is up or flat. A falling price misses that Hot confirmation branch, so this sustained row does not stay on the confirmed Hot path and can fall through to ❌ Avoid if no other watch-state rule applies. Wishlist Hot can still strengthen the recommendation wording once the row is already Hot, and any OUT-row demand carryover is bounded to 5 runs.
OOS runs 2 to 3
Assign ⚠️ Watch by default. Price up becomes 🔥 Hot. Otherwise, Hot wishlist plus rising delta can still escalate the row to 🔥 Hot, but demand has to confirm both pressure and momentum together.
Observed in 2 runs or fewer
Assign ⚠️ Watch while the history is sparse. The model exposes the row, but it does not treat missing pre-first-seen runs as proven scarcity.
Recent IN/OUT flapping
Assign ⚠️ Watch. The model treats this as wave restocking, not stable scarcity.
No convincing supply shortage
Assign ❌ Avoid by default. Demand can only lift this to ⚠️ Watch, never Hot, and falling momentum keeps it ❌ Avoid.
Bounded pressure and momentum lookups
Demand signals stay recent: OUT carryover ends after 5 runs, the current delta lookup uses 3 runs, and the previous comparable lookup uses 12 runs.
Rule Trace
Aphonopelma seemanni
Costa Rican Zebra, 1.5 cm
Stock pattern
Current row is OUT and the absence has lasted 4 runs, so the first rule hit is Sustained rather than Emerging or Cyclical.
Price trend
The price climbs from £8.99 to £15.00 to £25.00, so the confirmation check is price up rather than falling price.
Demand context
Wishlist pressure is strong, and recent demand can still carry forward for up to 5 runs while the species remains OUT. That reinforces the Hot reading, but it is not the primary trigger.
Output row
Assign 🔥 Hot because sustained scarcity reached the base trigger first and the non-falling price branch confirmed it. This is not ⚠️ Watch because the row is no longer borderline, and not ❌ Avoid because the Always oversupply path never applied.
ℹ️ How to read these tables (Legend)
🧬 Breeder Opportunity Matrix — Legend
OOS (Current Availability)
IN— Species is currently listed for saleOUT— Species is not listed this runIN/OUT— Species recently disappeared and reappeared (cyclical supply)- Note: This reflects CURRENT availability only, not historical supply patterns
OOS Runs (Consecutive Scarcity Window)
- Number of consecutive runs the species has been out of stock ending at the current run
- With weekly runs,
4+weeks indicates persistent scarcity - Resets to 0 when species returns to stock — focuses on current opportunity window
- Example: A species OUT for 5 weeks, then IN, then OUT for 2 weeks shows
OOS Runs = 2 - Runs before a species is first observed are ambiguous and do not count as breeder scarcity evidence
- Key Difference from Dealer Matrix: Breeder OOS Runs measures current scarcity window (forward-looking opportunity), while Dealer Avg OOS Duration measures historical supply reliability (backward-looking risk assessment)
Stock Pattern (Primary Signal)
Always— Normal availability or a single short-term sell-out (noise)Emerging— Missing for multiple consecutive runs (early scarcity)Sustained— Missing for many runs (strong breeding signal)Cyclical— Repeated disappear / reappear pattern (batch supply)Newly Observed— Currently in stock, but only observed in the latest 1-2 runs; limited history means pre-first-seen absence is ambiguous
Price (Value + Trend)
- Shows current (or last-seen) price plus direction (e.g.,
£30.00 ↑) ↑— Price rising vs last observed price→— Price stable↓— Price falling
Price History (Trend Visualization)
- Unicode sparkline showing last 8 weeks of pricing (▁▂▃▄▅▆▇█)
- Each character represents one week (left = oldest, right = most recent)
- Height indicates relative price within the period
- When species is OUT of stock, last known price is carried forward (prices persist even when not actively sold)
- Shows pricing stability or volatility at a glance
- Example:
▁▂▃▄▅▆▇█shows steady price increases over 8 weeks
Wishlist (Count · Demand Tier · Momentum)
- Shows
count tier momentum(e.g.,57 🔥 →) — the raw wishlist count, relative demand tier, and momentum signal - Count — raw wishlist count (higher = more buyer interest); table sorts by count descending within each signal group
- Tier (
🔥/⚠️/❌) — relative ranking within the current run (not absolute thresholds); for OUT-of-stock species carries forward from most recent IN-stock run (up to 5 runs back) - Momentum (
↑/→/↓) — meaningful change between current and previous IN-stock observations (±5 threshold); uses bounded carryover for OUT species (up to 3 runs back); returns→when no comparable value found - Adds demand context beside the supply columns; see the methodology section for exact escalation rules.
Wishlist History (Trend Visualization)
- Unicode sparkline showing last 8 weeks of wishlist counts (▁▂▃▄▅▆▇█)
- Each character represents one week (left = oldest, right = most recent)
- Height indicates relative wishlist interest within the period
- When species is OUT of stock, last known wishlist count is carried forward (interest persists)
- Shows demand trajectory and momentum at a glance
- Example:
▁▂▄▆█shows accelerating interest over 5 weeks
Signal
🔥— Strong breeding opportunity signal⚠️— Monitor closely; opportunity may be forming❌— Oversupplied or no meaningful scarcityNewly Observedstays in the⚠️bucket until more runs exist; it is a limited-history hold state, not confirmed scarcity or abundance
Recommendation (Final Assessment)
- Combines Stock Pattern + Price + Wishlist
- Final label shown in the table after the row's supply and demand columns are considered together.
- See the methodology section above for the detailed decision rules and rule trace.
📖 Practical Examples
📖 Breeder Matrix — Practical Examples
The following examples show how different combinations of signals translate into recommendations. These scenarios are based on actual test cases and represent typical market situations you might encounter.
Example 1: Sustained Scarcity (Strong Opportunity)
Scenario: A species that has been unavailable for 4+ consecutive weeks
| Date | Listed? | Price | Wishlist Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-01 | ✅ Yes | £25.00 | 10 |
| 2025-01-08 | ❌ No | - | - |
| 2025-01-15 | ❌ No | - | - |
| 2025-01-22 | ❌ No | - | - |
| 2025-01-29 | ❌ No | - | - |
Analysis Result:
- OOS: OUT
- OOS Runs: 4
- Stock Pattern: Sustained
- Signal: 🔥
- Recommendation: Pair soon — sustained scarcity with strong buyer interest
Why: When a species disappears for 4+ weeks in a row, this indicates persistent market scarcity. This is a strong signal for breeders that demand is outpacing supply, making it a good breeding candidate.
Example 2: Emerging Scarcity with Rising Price
Scenario: A species recently went out of stock (2-3 weeks) and price increased before disappearing
| Date | Listed? | Price | Wishlist Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-01 | ✅ Yes | £25.00 | 5 |
| 2025-01-08 | ✅ Yes | £30.00 | 6 |
| 2025-01-15 | ❌ No | - | - |
| 2025-01-22 | ❌ No | - | - |
Analysis Result:
- OOS: OUT
- OOS Runs: 2
- Stock Pattern: Emerging
- Price: £30.00 ↑
- Signal: 🔥
- Recommendation: Consider pairing — rising demand
Why: The combination of disappearing stock AND rising prices suggests growing market demand. Even though the scarcity is only emerging (2-3 weeks), the price increase confirms this as a genuine opportunity rather than just temporary fluctuation.
Example 3: Cyclical Pattern (Batch Supply)
Scenario: A species that repeatedly disappears and reappears
| Date | Listed? | Price | Wishlist Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-01 | ✅ Yes | £25.00 | 5 |
| 2025-01-08 | ❌ No | - | - |
| 2025-01-15 | ✅ Yes | £26.00 | 6 |
Analysis Result:
- OOS: IN/OUT
- Stock Pattern: Cyclical
- Signal: ⚠️
- Recommendation: Breed cautiously — wave restocking
Why: When species flap between available and unavailable, this suggests suppliers are breeding in batches. It's worth monitoring but not necessarily an urgent opportunity since supply returns regularly.
Example 4: Always Available (Oversupplied)
Scenario: A species consistently in stock at stable prices with low interest
| Date | Listed? | Price | Wishlist Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-01 | ✅ Yes | £25.00 | 3 |
| 2025-01-08 | ✅ Yes | £25.00 | 3 |
| 2025-01-15 | ✅ Yes | £25.00 | 4 |
Analysis Result:
- OOS: IN
- OOS Runs: 0
- Stock Pattern: Always
- Wishlist: 4 ❌ →
- Signal: ❌
- Recommendation: Avoid for profit — oversupplied
Why: Continuous availability combined with stable prices and low wishlist interest indicates the market has plenty of supply. Not a good breeding opportunity.
Example 5: Emerging Opportunity with High Demand
Scenario: A species went out of stock for 2 weeks, but shows significant wishlist interest surge
| Date | Listed? | Price | Wishlist Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-01 | ✅ Yes | £25.00 | 5 |
| 2025-01-08 | ✅ Yes | £25.00 | 15 |
| 2025-01-15 | ❌ No | - | - |
| 2025-01-22 | ❌ No | - | - |
Analysis Result:
- OOS: OUT
- OOS Runs: 2
- Stock Pattern: Emerging
- Wishlist: 15 🔥 ↑ (carried from last seen)
- Signal: 🔥
- Recommendation: Consider pairing — emerging scarcity with surging interest
Why: The dramatic increase in wishlist count (+10) before the species went out of stock, combined with the emerging scarcity pattern, indicates rapidly growing demand. The momentum signal escalates this from a "watch" to a strong opportunity.
Example 6: Always Available with Falling Interest
Scenario: A species remains in stock but wishlist interest is declining
| Date | Listed? | Price | Wishlist Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-01 | ✅ Yes | £25.00 | 20 |
| 2025-01-08 | ✅ Yes | £25.00 | 15 |
| 2025-01-15 | ✅ Yes | £25.00 | 8 |
Analysis Result:
- OOS: IN
- OOS Runs: 0
- Stock Pattern: Always
- Wishlist: 8 🔥 ↓
- Signal: ❌
- Recommendation: Avoid for profit — interest declining
Why: Continuous availability combined with declining wishlist interest suggests the market is saturated and buyer interest is waning. This is a clear signal to avoid breeding this species.
Example 7: Understanding OOS Metrics — Breeder vs Dealer Perspective
Scenario: A species currently in stock, but with a history of extended unavailability
| Date | Listed? | Price | Wishlist Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-01 | ✅ Yes | £15.00 | 8 |
| 2025-01-08 | ❌ No | - | - |
| 2025-01-15 | ❌ No | - | - |
| 2025-01-22 | ❌ No | - | - |
| 2025-01-29 | ❌ No | - | - |
| 2025-02-05 | ❌ No | - | - |
| 2025-02-12 | ✅ Yes | £15.00 | 12 |
| 2025-02-19 | ✅ Yes | £15.00 | 16 |
Breeder Analysis:
- OOS: IN (currently listed)
- OOS Runs: 0 (no consecutive scarcity right now)
- Stock Pattern: Always
- Wishlist: 16 ⚠️ →
- Signal: ❌
- Recommendation: Avoid for profit — oversupplied
Dealer Analysis:
- Stock Reliability: Low (only in stock 3 of 8 weeks = 38%)
- Avg OOS Duration: 5.0 runs (one long sell-out lasted 5 weeks)
- Restock Speed: Slow
- Wishlist: 16 ⚠️ →
- Dealer Risk: 🔥
- Recommendation: Actively seek breeders
Why the Different Metrics?
-
Breeder OOS Runs = 0: Measures consecutive weeks OUT ending now. Since it's IN stock now, the counter resets. Breeders focus on current scarcity windows — if it's available now, there's no immediate breeding signal.
-
Dealer Avg OOS = 5.0: Measures average duration of OOS events across all history. This species disappeared once for 5 consecutive weeks before returning. Dealers need to know supply reliability — even if it's in stock today, the pattern shows it can vanish for extended periods.
The Key Insight: This is low-priority for breeders (no current scarcity) but high-priority for dealers (poor supply reliability means lost sales risk). The metrics answer different questions: - Breeder: "Should I breed this NOW?" → No, it's currently available - Dealer: "Is supply reliable?" → No, and when it sells out, it can stay out for ~5 weeks
This demonstrates how the same market data yields different but equally valid insights for different stakeholders.
Example 8: Newly Observed (Limited History Hold State)
Scenario: A species is currently in stock, but only appears in the latest 2 runs after being absent from all earlier dataset history
| Date | Listed? | Price | Wishlist Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-01 | ❌ No | - | - |
| 2025-01-08 | ❌ No | - | - |
| 2025-01-15 | ✅ Yes | £25.00 | 9 |
| 2025-01-22 | ✅ Yes | £26.00 | 14 |
Analysis Result:
- OOS: IN
- OOS Runs: 0
- Stock Pattern: Newly Observed
- Wishlist: 14 🔥 ↑
- Signal: ⚠️
- Recommendation: Monitor closely — newly observed, limited history (observed 2/4 runs)
Why: This species is too new in the dataset to treat as reliably available, but there is also not enough evidence to treat earlier absence as true scarcity. Newly Observed keeps the row in a limited-history hold state until more runs exist.