📦 Dealer Supply Risk
Analysis highlighting inventory availability patterns and supply risk indicators.
💡 How to use this page (60 seconds)
What do the risk levels mean?
- 🔥 High Risk – Frequent stockouts, slow restocks, supply reliability issues
- ⚠️ Moderate Risk – Occasional stock gaps, monitor for changes
- ❌ Low Risk (Reliable) – Consistent availability, dependable supply
How to interpret the data:
- Hover over the ℹ️ info icon next to any risk rating to see specific drivers (reliability metrics, restock speed, demand pressure)
- Use filters to identify High Risk species requiring attention or backup suppliers
- Check Avg OOS Duration and Restock Speed to plan inventory
Full Data Table
🧭 How the dealer analysis works
Thresholds, compact decision logic, and a rule trace that explain why a row becomes High Risk, Moderate Risk, or Low Risk.
Dealer reading lens
Start with reliability and restock speed. Wishlist pressure changes urgency inside the supply bands, but healthy supply should not be promoted into a risk state by demand alone.
Supply Reliability Thresholds
- High: presence percentage >= 0.8: This bucket resolves to ❌ Low Risk on the current dealer page. Strong wishlist interest can change the wording, but it does not change the symbol.
- Medium: >= 0.4 and < 0.8: This bucket defaults to ⚠️ Moderate Risk. It only escalates to 🔥 High Risk when wishlist pressure is Hot and delta is rising together.
- Low: presence percentage < 0.4: Low reliability starts at ⚠️ Moderate Risk. Slow restock, Hot wishlist pressure, or rising delta each upgrade it to 🔥 High Risk; without those fire triggers it stays ⚠️ rather than dropping to ❌ Low Risk.
Restock Speed
- Slow restock: average OOS duration >= 3: Extended stockouts compound low reliability into the most urgent dealer state.
- Moderate restock: average OOS duration == 2: Two-run stockouts remain concerning but do not automatically become severe.
- Fast restock: anything quicker: Fast recovery prevents mild supply gaps from over-escalating.
Escalation Rules
- Assign 🔥 High Risk: Low reliability + slow restock: This is already enough supply evidence for the urgent dealer bucket.
- Assign 🔥 High Risk: Low reliability + wishlist Hot or delta up: Demand can accelerate a weak-supply row into active sourcing urgency.
- Assign 🔥 High Risk: Medium reliability + wishlist Hot + delta up: Medium supply only escalates fully when both pressure and momentum align.
- Assign ⚠️ Moderate Risk: Low reliability unless a fire trigger applies: Poor supply alone is already a warning state. Without slow restock, Hot wishlist pressure, or rising delta, the row stays ⚠️ instead of falling to ❌.
- Assign ⚠️ Moderate Risk: Medium reliability unless both wishlist Hot and delta up: Medium reliability is the watch-state default. Hot wishlist without rising delta still stays ⚠️.
- Assign ❌ Low Risk: High reliability, even when wishlist is Hot: Even elevated interest never overrides consistently healthy supply, and any remaining unmatched path also falls back to ❌.
Time Windows & Caveats
- OOS carryover lookback: 5 runs: OUT rows can inherit their most recent in-stock wishlist pressure for a bounded period.
- Current delta lookup window: 3 runs: When a species is OUT now, momentum uses only a short carryover window.
- Previous comparable lookup window: 12 runs: Older baselines are ignored so momentum is not compared against stale history.
- Dealer Limited History: This appears only when a species has been observed in at most two runs and earlier runs before first observation are ambiguous.
- Dealer price pressure: Price pressure is informational only. It appears in the table and Drivers text, but it does not decide the dealer risk classification.
Compact Dealer Decision Tree
Bucket the row by stock reliability
High at 0.8+ presence resolves to ❌ Low Risk. Medium at 0.4 to 0.8 defaults to ⚠️ Moderate Risk unless demand upgrades it to 🔥 High Risk. Low below 0.4 also starts at ⚠️ Moderate Risk, then upgrades to 🔥 High Risk when a fire trigger applies.
Supply is already weak
Assign 🔥 High Risk if restock is Slow: slow restock is enough on its own. If restock is faster, Hot wishlist pressure or rising wishlist delta can still produce 🔥 High Risk. If none of those checks fire, low reliability still remains ⚠️ Moderate Risk because weak supply is never treated as fully healthy.
Variable supply
Assign ⚠️ Moderate Risk by default. Restock speed alone does not promote medium-reliability rows, so upgrade to 🔥 High Risk only when both Hot wishlist and rising delta combine.
Healthy supply
Assign ❌ Low Risk. Restock speed does not override healthy supply, and even strong wishlist only adds monitoring language rather than a higher-risk symbol.
Bounded momentum, informational price
Wishlist momentum stays recent: the current delta lookup uses 3 runs, the previous comparable lookup uses 12 runs, and price remains informational only.
Append limited-history caveat when needed
Sparse evidence becomes explanatory text, not a new risk bucket.
Rule Trace
Aphonopelma seemanni
Costa Rican Zebra, 1.5 cm
Reliability bucket
Stock Reliability = Low places the row below the 0.4 medium-reliability floor, so it starts on the weak-supply branch rather than the Medium or High branches.
Restock speed
Restock Speed = Slow, so the low-reliability path already has enough supply evidence for the urgent branch instead of a quick one-run blip.
Demand pressure
Drivers show rising wishlist interest. That reinforces urgency for a low-reliability row, but the key rule trace is that High Risk was already available once Low reliability and Slow restock combined.
Output row
Assign 🔥 High Risk because low reliability plus Slow restock is already enough to trigger the urgent dealer branch. This is not ⚠️ Moderate Risk because the row is beyond the medium-supply watch state, and not ❌ Low Risk because healthy-supply branches never applied. Price pressure remains informational only.
ℹ️ How to read these tables (Legend)
🏪 Dealer Supply Risk Matrix — Legend
Stock Reliability (Historical Supply Pattern)
High— Listed in ≥80% of all historical runs (typically always available)Medium— Listed in 40-79% of runs (intermittent availability)Low— Listed in <40% of runs (rarely available)Lowreliability is never treated as fully healthy supply on the dealer page; without extra fire triggers it still remains a⚠️warning state rather than❌low risk- Calculated across entire history, not just recent weeks
- Example: A species IN stock now but only appeared in 3 of 10 historical weeks =
Lowreliability - When a species is only newly observed late in the dataset, reliability still stays supply-first but recommendation text may flag the conclusion as limited-history / low-confidence
Avg OOS Duration (Supply Volatility Measure)
- Average number of runs a species stays out of stock per OOS event across all history
- Calculated by counting all OOS events (disappearances) and averaging their durations
- Provides context for understanding restock patterns and supply volatility
- Example: OUT for 4 weeks, IN for 1, OUT for 2 weeks, IN now → Avg OOS = 3.0 runs
- Independent of current availability — measures historical behavior
- Key Difference from Breeder Matrix: Dealer Avg OOS Duration is a historical average (supply reliability indicator), while Breeder OOS Runs counts only the current consecutive OUT period (immediate scarcity signal)
Restock Speed (Supply Confidence)
Fast— Typically returns quicklyModerate— Takes several runsSlow— Prolonged absence after sell-out
Price (Value + Trend)
- Shows current (or last-seen) price plus direction (e.g.,
£30.00 ↑) ↑— Prices increasing→— Stable pricing↓— Prices softening- Influence: Informational only; does not affect risk classification (supply and demand signals take precedence)
Price History (Trend Visualization)
- Unicode sparkline showing last 8 weeks of pricing (▁▂▃▄▅▆▇█)
- Each character represents one week (left = oldest, right = most recent)
- Height indicates relative price within the period
- When species is OUT of stock, last known price is carried forward (prices persist even when not actively sold)
- Shows pricing stability or volatility at a glance
- Example:
▁▂▃▄▅▆▇█shows steady price increases over 8 weeks
Wishlist (Count · Demand Tier · Momentum)
- Shows
count tier momentum(e.g.,57 🔥 →) — the raw wishlist count, relative demand tier, and momentum signal - Count — raw wishlist count (higher = more buyer interest); table sorts by count descending within each risk group
- Tier (
🔥/⚠️/❌) — relative ranking within the current run; for OUT-of-stock species carries forward from most recent IN-stock run (up to 5 runs back) - Momentum (
↑/→/↓) — meaningful change between observations (±5 threshold); bounded carryover for OUT species (up to 3 runs back); returns→when no comparable value found - Adds demand urgency beside the supply columns; see the methodology section for the full dealer escalation rules.
Wishlist History (Trend Visualization)
- Unicode sparkline showing last 8 weeks of wishlist counts (▁▂▃▄▅▆▇█)
- Each character represents one week (left = oldest, right = most recent)
- Height indicates relative wishlist interest within the period
- When species is OUT of stock, last known wishlist count is carried forward (interest persists)
- Shows demand trajectory and momentum at a glance
- Example:
▁▂▄▆█shows accelerating interest over 5 weeks
Stock Availability (Supply Pattern Visualization)
- Binary sparkline showing last 8 weeks of stock status (█ = IN, space = OUT)
- Each position represents one week (left = oldest, right = most recent)
█indicates species was IN stock that week- Space indicates species was OUT of stock that week
- Visualizes the Stock Reliability metric and supply patterns at a glance
- Examples:
████████— Always available (high reliability)█ █ █— Intermittent supply (medium/low reliability)█— Disappeared from stock (low reliability)
Dealer Risk (Supply Signal)
🔥— High risk of lost sales (supply constrained)⚠️— Manage carefully❌— No urgency; reserved for healthy high-reliability supply
Dealer Recommendation (Final Assessment)
- Combines Stock Reliability + Restock Speed + Wishlist
- Final label shown in the table after the row's supply and demand columns are considered together.
- Low reliability on its own is already enough to keep the row out of
❌ Low Risk; extra fire triggers decide whether it escalates from⚠️to🔥 - See the methodology section above for the detailed dealer decision rules and rule trace.
📖 Practical Examples
📖 Dealer Matrix — Practical Examples
The following examples show how supply patterns and demand signals combine to assess dealer risk. These scenarios help dealers understand which species require urgent attention and which are well-supplied.
Example 1: High Reliability (No Urgency)
Scenario: A species available in 9 out of 10 weeks with stable demand
Analysis Result:
- Stock Reliability: High (9/10 weeks = 90%)
- Restock Speed: Fast
- Wishlist: 5 ❌ →
- Dealer Risk: ❌
- Recommendation: No urgency / oversupplied
Why: When a species is almost always available and demand is stable or low, there's no risk of lost sales. Dealers can wait for favorable pricing or focus on more constrained species.
Example 2: Medium Reliability (Watch and Wait)
Scenario: A species present in 5 out of 10 weeks (50% availability)
Analysis Result:
- Stock Reliability: Medium
- Wishlist: 8 ⚠️ →
- Dealer Risk: ⚠️
- Recommendation: Buy opportunistically
Why: Intermittent availability means supply is somewhat unreliable, but not critically constrained. Dealers should buy when good opportunities arise, but don't need to actively seek stock.
Example 3: Low Reliability + Slow Restock (High Risk)
Scenario: A species rarely available (3 out of 10 weeks), taking 4+ weeks to restock
Analysis Result:
- Stock Reliability: Low (<40% availability)
- Avg OOS Duration: 3.5 runs
- Restock Speed: Slow
- Dealer Risk: 🔥
- Recommendation: Actively seek breeders
Why: When a species is rarely available AND takes a long time to restock, dealers face high risk of lost sales. Even without exceptional demand, the supply constraint alone makes this a priority species to source.
Example 4: Low Reliability + High Demand (Critical Risk)
Scenario: A rarely available species with strong buyer interest
Analysis Result:
- Stock Reliability: Low (1/6 weeks)
- Wishlist: 50 🔥 → (carried from last seen)
- Dealer Risk: 🔥
- Recommendation: Actively seek breeders — high demand, poor supply
Why: The combination of unreliable supply AND high buyer interest creates maximum risk. Dealers who don't stock this species are losing sales to competitors. This is the highest priority sourcing situation.
Example 5: Medium Reliability + Surging Demand (Escalated Risk)
Scenario: A moderately available species with rapidly increasing wishlist interest
Analysis Result:
- Stock Reliability: Medium
- Wishlist: 22 🔥 ↑
- Dealer Risk: 🔥
- Recommendation: Actively seek breeders — surging demand, variable supply
Why: When demand is rapidly accelerating (wishlist rising significantly) combined with variable supply, this signals an emerging opportunity. Even though reliability is medium, the momentum suggests future supply problems. Dealers should act proactively.
Example 6: High Reliability + Falling Demand (No Action Needed)
Scenario: A consistently available species with declining buyer interest
Analysis Result:
- Stock Reliability: High
- Wishlist: 6 ❌ ↓
- Dealer Risk: ❌
- Recommendation: No urgency / oversupplied
Why: Excellent supply reliability combined with declining interest means the market is well-supplied and demand is softening. Dealers should avoid stocking up and may want to clear existing inventory.
Example 7: Low Reliability + Surging Interest (Early Warning)
Scenario: An unreliable species showing early-stage demand growth
Analysis Result:
- Stock Reliability: Low
- Wishlist: 12 ⚠️ ↑
- Dealer Risk: 🔥
- Recommendation: Actively seek breeders — unreliable supply, surging interest
Why: Low reliability species with accelerating interest represent early-stage supply constraints. Even if current wishlist pressure isn't at maximum, the positive momentum combined with poor supply reliability signals dealers should secure stock before competition intensifies.
Example 8: Low Reliability + Stable Demand (Supply Warning)
Scenario: A rarely available species with stable, non-urgent demand and no extra fire trigger
Analysis Result:
- Stock Reliability: Low
- Restock Speed: Fast
- Wishlist: 6 ❌ →
- Dealer Risk: ⚠️
- Recommendation: Buy opportunistically — unreliable supply
Why: Low reliability alone is already a dealer warning sign because supply is weak. Without slow restock, Hot wishlist pressure, or rising momentum, the row stays at ⚠️ Moderate Risk rather than escalating to 🔥, but it also never drops to fully healthy ❌ Low Risk.